E · 边界与合规 Boundaries & Complianceq43 / 50

「非随机、非盲法、无平行对照」具体意味着什么？

What do non-randomised, non-blinded and uncontrolled mean in practice?

非随机：对象不是随机分组，可能存在选择偏倚；非盲法：使用者知道自己在用产品，主观评分可能偏高；无平行对照：无法排除自然恢复与季节因素。

Non-randomised: participants were not randomly assigned, so selection bias is possible. Non-blinded: users knew they were using the product, so subjective scores may inflate. Uncontrolled: natural recovery and seasonal effects cannot be excluded.

这三条限制叠加起来，意味着数据只能用于说明趋势，不能用于量化效果大小。

举例：如果观察期恰逢季节转湿，皮肤状态本身就会改善，无对照时无法区分这部分贡献。

正确的读法是：把它看作「方向对不对」的初步信号，而不是「效果有多强」的证据。

Together, these mean the data can indicate direction but cannot quantify effect size.

Read it as a preliminary signal about whether the direction is right, not as evidence of how strong the effect is.

作者：张京宏（宝措卤阳® 创始人）　|　理论提出：2022 年　|　本页为 SBT 问答 50 条之 q43
Answer by Zhang Jinghong, founder of Baocuo Luyang® · SBT proposed 2022 · Qq43 of 50

「非随机、非盲法、无平行对照」具体意味着什么？

What do non-randomised, non-blinded and uncontrolled mean in practice?

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